Euro under pressure

Euro fell a second week in a row. The long-term effect of reducing the base rate of the euro is preserved. Euro gradually depreciating against the U.S. dollar. The world economy is showing poor growth. Retail sales in the U.S. fell a second straight month. Decline in April was -0.1%. The main disappointment of investors - is the GDP of the euro area. Italy's GDP fell by 0.5%, France's GDP fell by 0.2%, Germany's GDP showed slower growth + 0.1% vs. 0.3%. And the most important thing  - Eurozone GDP showed a decline of -0.2%. It's the fourth quarter to reduce the euro area economy.

Chart 1

The EURUSD  (Chart 1) declines of the local maximum 1,3110. The diagonal line resistance indicates bearish sentiment. This confirms the indicator MACD (5,20,10) which is located below the zero mark and  MA(200) above the price. The nearest major support level 1.2660. If the pair broke the next week this level then have a new goal of reducing the euro 1.2100. Euro sentiment remains bearish. Expect a further decline in EURUSD.

Uncertainty of euro

Last week, from 22 to 26 April showed a weak trend of the main currency pair  EURUSD. The basic mood of investors - the uncertainty. Macro data from Europe disappointed investors. The unemployment rate in Spain reached a record high of 27, 2% in the fourth quarter of 2012. It showed a deterioration of the Spanish economy. The index of business sentiment in Germany also was worse than analysts' forecasts - 104.4 vs. 106.4. Production in the euro area and the services sector continues to shrink. The index of the service sector fell to 46.6. The production index fell to 46.5. All this has led investors to expect that the European Central Bank will   strengthen the stimulation of the economy. The base rate of the European Central Bank is 0.75 basis points. Investors expect a decline to 0.5 basis points. Investors started to buy the assets and European stocks rose strongly. However, that does decide ECB? The uncertainty is expressed in the neutral dynamics of EURUSD.
  On the weekly chart, we can see the formation of a triangle. Perhaps soon, this triangle will be broken down if the ECB will lower its key interest rate. This will put pressure on the euro and the EURUSD will decline. If the ECB leave rate unchanged  that EURUSD will rise. 

On the daily chart we see EURUSD neutral dynamics within a large triangle.

Uncertainty is growing. Probably from May 2 to begin a strong movement of the euro. But where will it go? Envy of solutions ECB.